NFL Win Totals Team by Team Breakdown for the 2022-23 NFL Season
Here is a look at the challenges faced by all 32 NFL teams going into the final game of the 2022-23 season. All NFL projected win totals are from FanDuel prior to Week 1.
Arizona Cardinals (O/U 8.5 wins) – Under Hit
At 4-12, the Cardinals have fallen well short of their win total in a season that was ripe with disappointment long before Kyler Murray tore his ACL. Things may have peaked back in Week 2 when the Cardinals erased a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter against the Raiders before winning on a fumble return touchdown. But that should have been a sign that things were not going to go well this year if it took that much to win one game against the Raiders.
Atlanta Falcons (O/U 4.5 wins) – Over Hit
The Falcons hit their over already, but Marcus Mariota’s disappointing play down the stretch and an unspectacular start to the Desmond Ridder era are going to leave the Falcons in a curious position of not knowing what they have at quarterback going into 2023. Arthur Smith likely keeps his job, but this team is going to need more from the passing game next year.
Baltimore Ravens (O/U 10.5 wins)
In the first three games this season, Lamar Jackson had 10 touchdown passes and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt. In the eight games since, Jackson has seven touchdowns and averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Was Rashod Bateman really that important at wide receiver, or were those early games the outliers? Either way, this team needs to start playing better and holding onto leads or it will lose the division to Cincinnati regardless of the Bengals having a much tougher schedule. The Ravens are struggling with Carolina and losing in Jacksonville the last two weeks. That does not bode well for the stretch run here.
Buffalo Bills (O/U 11.5 wins) – Over Hit
Thoughts and prayers to the Bills after Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field in Cincinnati on Monday night. He is doing better, but he remains in critical condition. The Bills are still expected to play the Patriots this Sunday with a chance for 13 wins after already securing their over, but the No. 1 seed they have worked hard for is still up for grabs. We are waiting to see what the NFL decides on the game with the Bengals.
Carolina Panthers (O/U 6.5 wins)
After losing 13-3in Baltimore, the 3-8 Panthers are turning to their third quarterback of the season in Sam Darnold, the starter to begin the 2021 season. This could be another final chance for Darnold in Carolina, and if it doesn’t work out, the Panthers should be all in on finding a new quarterback for 2023. Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Darnold are not the long-term solutions, especially for a team that will be hiring a new head coach as well.
Chicago Bears (O/U 5.5 wins) – Under Hit
After a shaky 2-1 start, the Bears have lost 12 of their last 13 games and are starting Nathan Peterman in the season finale to go along with the No. 32 scoring defense. Justin Fields had a prolific rushing season with 1,143 yards, but he will have to make drastic improvements in the passing game next year if the Bears are going to start winning games.
Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 9.5 wins) – Over Hit
Like the Bills, the Bengals are in a holding pattern waiting to see what the NFL decides on their highly important game with the Bills following Damar Hamlin’s tragic health event on the field. The Bengals could still be the No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seed in the AFC. Regardless of where they land, you can count on this team being a hard out in the playoffs again.
Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins) – Under Hit
The Browns may have been in the playoff mix if they didn’t epically blow a Week 2 game against the Jets when they led by 13 points in the final 2:00 after Nick Chubb mistakenly scored a touchdown instead of going down. But instead of blaming Chubb, the fault is more with Deshaun Watson not playing well after coming off a suspension to replace Jacoby Brissett, who did play well. Now all that’s left is to see if the Browns can finish ahead of the Steelers in the AFC standings for the first time since the 1989 season.
Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins) – Over Hit
Props to the Cowboys for overcoming turnover regression on defense only to turn the ball over like crazy on offense and still win 12 games with a chance for 13 and the NFC East title should the Eagles slip up again. This team is scary if they can control the turnovers. Dak Prescott has led Dallas to at least 27 points in nine straight games, the longest streak in franchise history. But we’ll see if they can overcome Tom Brady’s playoff luck in the wild card round should that be the matchup.
Denver Broncos (O/U 9.5 wins) – Under Hit
Crazy to think many of us thought this team would flirt with 10 wins and the playoffs. The Broncos were a huge disappointment on opening night in Seattle when coach Nathaniel Hackett thought settling for a 64-yard field goal was the right call. It only got worse from there as did Russell Wilson’s performance. The Broncos fired Hackett after 15 games and they will have to find a coach willing to fix Wilson, because they are tied to that contract for now.
Detroit Lions (O/U 6.5 wins) – Over Hit
Good on Dan Campbell to rally the troops from a 1-6 start to get to 8-8. The Lions do not control their playoff destiny and they are unlikely to get into the tournament, but it is still a possibility in Week 18. Jared Goff was much better than expected at quarterback, making a tough decision to come on what to do at that position. Rookie Aidan Hutchinson exceeded the hype as the No. 2 pick in the draft.
Green Bay Packers (O/U 10.5 wins) – Under Hit
It has been the toughest season of Aaron Rodgers’ career, but it could still end up in the playoffs if Green Bay wins at home against the Lions, something Rodgers has done almost every year of his career. But he is leaning more on the running game, defense, and special teams to pull off this rally from a 4-8 record to possibly 9-8 and the playoffs.
Houston Texans (O/U 4.5 wins) – Under Hit
Despite the 2-13-1 record, Sunday against Jacksonville was the first time all year the Texans lost by more than 18 points. The Texans fought hard in a lot of games despite having probably the least talented roster in the NFL. But the run defense was horrible and Davis Mills made no strides over his decent rookie season. This has to be a new coach and new quarterback with the No. 1 pick situation for Houston in 2023. Enough is enough.
Indianapolis Colts (O/U 9.5 wins) – Under Hit
The Broncos of the Midwest, the Colts were a huge disappointment despite adding Matt Ryan. He engineered some crazy comebacks early in the season, and they are still the only team to hold the Chiefs under 20 points this year, but a league-high 31 turnovers and blowing a 33-0 lead in Minnesota make this team a laughingstock. It did not help that they hired interim coach Jeff Saturday despite him having no experience at the college or professional level. The Colts would be wise to look for a new coach and quarterback (again) in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 6.5 wins) – Over Hit
The Jaguars ended their 41-game losing streak when allowing more than 20 points by winning a few shootouts behind Trevor Lawrence in his second season. Now they have a chance to win the division title with a home win over the Titans, who are starting Josh Dobbs at quarterback. This is Doug Pederson’s moment this week, so he better capitalize on it because this is only happening thanks to a full collapse by the once 7-3 Titans. Still, it is encouraging to see the Jaguars moving in the right direction with Lawrence, and Travis Etienne has proven to be a quality back after missing his first season. The criticized receiver signings have also done well with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram clicking with Lawrence in this offense.
Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 10.5 wins) – Over Hit
The Chiefs are 5-10-1 ATS but they still keep winning these games. They may even still get a No. 1 seed despite losing to both the Bengals and Bills, their chief rivals in the AFC who they are 1-5 against since 2021. But the playoffs will likely lead to the Chiefs having to beat one or both of those teams if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. Look for Patrick Mahomes to win his second MVP award, but remember that no MVP winner has won the Super Bowl in the same year since the 1999 Rams with Kurt Warner.
Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 8.5 wins) – Under Hit
We’ll never forget Josh McDaniels’ debut season with the Raiders. He blew six fourth-quarter leads, five double-digit leads, four leads of two touchdowns, and three leads of 17-plus points. He lost to Jeff Saturday, who had no prior coaching experience. He lost to Baker Mayfield, who joined the Rams two days earlier. He also may have ended the Derek Carr era after nine seasons by benching him for Jarrett Stidham, though Stidham balled out against the 49ers’ top-ranked defense last week.
Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 10 wins)
What is a scary sight? Justin Herbert in the playoffs with a good defense. The Chargers are in the tournament finally in Herbert’s third year, but the presence of a good defense is still up for debate after facing the Dolphins, Titans, and Colts during very rough patches for all three offenses. But if the Chargers can play with this intensity and get Joey Bosa back for the playoffs, then who is to say they cannot upset a team like the Bengals or Chiefs in January?
Los Angeles Rams (O/U 10.5 wins) – Under Hit
The Rams will finish the season with stars Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and more missing several games. But don’t let that fool you – this team was a massive disappointment before the injuries. At least they got their ring last year, because this team set the record for most losses (11 with a chance for 12) by a defending Super Bowl champion. We’ll see how long Sean McVay sticks around to fix things, but the Rams are in a tough spot with so few young draft picks to build up.
Miami Dolphins (O/U 8.5 wins)
There is a lot of doubt over the playing future of Tua Tagovailoa after his second reported concussion of the season, and potentially his third if you remember the initial hit in Week 3 against Buffalo that started his problems. The Dolphins are expected to start Teddy Bridgewater for their big game with the Patriots this week to try snapping a four-game losing streak and punching their ticket to the playoffs. But things are not going well for Miami right now, and the mishandling of Tua’s head injuries are going to be what people remember about this season if the Dolphins miss the playoffs after an 8-3 start.
Minnesota Vikings (O/U 9.5 wins) – Over Hit
Love them or hate them, the 2022 Vikings are a historic team. The Vikings are 11-0 in close games with a record-tying eight game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks in a season. This is also the first 12-win team in NFL history to have a negative scoring differential (-19), because when the Vikings lose, they LOSE hard. When they win, they do crazy things like erase a record 33-point deficit against the Colts or recover the most improbable fumble for a touchdown in Buffalo since the Joe Pisarcik miscue in 1978. You shouldn’t trust this team one bit in the playoffs, but their opponent better blow them out because you want no part of this team in a close game this year.
New England Patriots (O/U 8.5 wins)
When the Patriots (7-7) miss the playoffs, that lateral play in Las Vegas will be viewed as the No. 1 reason. That’s probably correct as Jakobi Meyers made an absolute horrid decision to throw that ball back because he thought he saw Mac Jones open. He threw it right to Chandler Jones for a touchdown return. Unbelievable and not the kind of error you’d expect from a team coached by Bill Belichick. But don’t discount losing a home game to the Bears in Week 7 for why the Patriots are a disappointment this year. That was another bad loss as the Bears haven’t won any other game since Week 3. But nothing will top this Vegas loss.
New Orleans Saints (O/U 8.5 wins) – Under Hit
Maybe the Saints shouldn’t have choked away a 16-3 lead in Tampa Bay or it could have won the NFC South this year. That will go down as one of the worst losses by any team this year because it was so avoidable without screwing up so many moments in that last quarter. Andy Dalton has played better than expected, but he is still a quarterback to keep this team in purgatory. The Saints are going to need to make some big changes soon.
New York Giants (O/U 7.5 wins) – Over Hit
He may not win Coach of the Year but give Brian Daboll props for getting these Giants back into the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season. They won a lot of close games early in the season, and they came through late to beat Washington and Indy to wrap up this wild card spot. Daniel Jones did not make the big strides you like to see at quarterback, but he had his best season, and the team at least knows it can compete with him in some limited fashion.
New York Jets (O/U 5.5 wins) – Over Hit
The Jets may have exceeded expectations, but a fluke win in Cleveland and an unexpected comeback led by Zach Wilson in Pittsburgh are working overtime for this 7-9 record. The Jets still have a major quarterback problem as the long-term solution does not seem to be on the roster again. It is a shame because the team absolutely nailed its draft class with Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall all looking like big hits.
Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 9.5 wins) – Over Hit
The Eagles crushed their over but the team is getting injured at the worst time with Jalen Hurts, Lane Johnson, and Josh Sweat among the fallen players late in the season. Hurts is expected to come back this week to help the team save the No. 1 seed after back-to-back losses without him. But the Eagles look like a beatable team that will have their hands full this postseason in an inconsistent NFC.
Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 7.5 wins) – Over Hit
After a 2-6 start, the Steelers regrouped after the bye, took advantage of an easier schedule, the return of T.J. Watt, the fewer turnovers from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, and now they are a home win over Cleveland away from finishing with a winning record (9-8). It would be the 19th-straight non-losing season, tying the 2001-19 Patriots for the second-longest streak in NFL history. The expectations in Pittsburgh since the 1970s have been to win playoff games, but after a transition period from the Ben Roethlisberger era, Mike Tomlin can gloat about getting this team to a winning record if he does so this weekend.
San Francisco 49ers (O/U 9.5 wins) – Over Hit
The 49ers are doing a great job with a third-string rookie quarterback in Brock Purdy as they start to look like the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL. It will be very interesting to see what happens if the 49ers are in the NFC Championship Game or better this year with a quarterback not named Trey Lance, who they traded up so much to get. But no rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, so let’s hold off on crowning him before the big games come. The 49ers just had a tough one with the Raiders and Jarrett Stidham, so nothing is guaranteed in this league. But this No. 1 defense can be a great aid to Purdy in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks (O/U 5.5 wins) – Over Hit
The Seahawks just beat the Jets, but they are kind of like the Jets of the NFC this year, hitting their over and still feeling disappointed because they likely miss the playoffs after a good start. But you cannot lose home games to the Raiders and Panthers. Simple as that. But good on Pete Carroll to let Russell Wilson go and immediately get a career year out of Geno Smith, who deserves to win Comeback Player of the Year. Rookie back Kenneth Walker also has a case for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 11.5 wins) – Under Hit
The Buccaneers won one of the worst division races since the merger, but now we’ll see if Tom Brady can get to 12-0 against the Falcons and a winning record (9-8) for the season this week. We know this team will face either the Cowboys or Eagles in the wild card round, and that game is winnable, especially if it’s a Dallas team that lost 19-3 in Week 1 to Tampa. With an NFC on such shaky ground, this is exactly why Brady ended his 40-day retirement. He saw an easy path to the Super Bowl with a terrible division setting him up for a playoff game at home, and a bunch of shaky contenders with a history of coming up short in January, including the Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, and 49ers.
Tennessee Titans (O/U 9.5 wins) – Under Hit
Trading away A.J. Brown never made sense, and that move likely cost GM Jon Robinson his job in December. If the Titans lose a seventh-straight game to miss the playoffs following a 7-3 start, it may cost head coach Mike Vrabel his job as well. Ryan Tannehill is not the long-term solution either at quarterback, but the Titans sure wish they had him this week instead of going into a do-or-die game with Jacksonville with Josh Dobbs. This was always going to be a tough year for the Titans after losing key pieces, but that 7-3 start looked fine. They fell apart after that.
Washington Commanders (O/U 8.5 wins)
With the playoffs slipping away, the Commanders have made another quarterback change by going back to Carson Wentz. It is a bold move with Wentz’s lack of success and history of coming up small in important games, but the good news is the Browns rarely score touchdowns with Deshaun Watson. It could be the kind of low-scoring win the Commanders need to get above .500 going into a final game against a Dallas team that likely will have nothing to play for.
Our Experts Best Win Totals Predictions for the 2022-23 NFL Season
Here are our best NFL picks for win totals odds this season. Note that these lines were set prior to Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts: Over 9.5 wins (-160 at FanDuel)
Last season, the Colts finished 9-8 despite:
- Starting Carson Wentz at quarterback
- Blowing four fourth-quarter leads (tied for most in NFL)
- Blowing three double-digit leads (most in NFL)
- Getting an MVP-caliber season out of rushing leader Jonathan Taylor
- Forcing 33 takeaways (second in NFL)
- Having the No. 2 average starting field position
- Losing by 15 points in Jacksonville as a 15-point favorite with the playoffs on the line
The Colts were 1-8 when they allowed more than 18 points last season. Having to be absolutely dominant on that side of the ball and hide your quarterback in big games is no way to succeed in this league.
Even if Taylor is less dominant and the defense does not recover so many fumbles, Matt Ryan is not going to blow this opportunity. Like Philip Rivers in 2020, Ryan will enjoy head coach Frank Reich taking advantage of his strengths and putting him in a position to succeed after he had his worst season with Atlanta. This is also going to be the best offensive line he’s had in years, led by All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. This should be the best defense he’s had in years, led by All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.
Ryan is past his prime, but he still has enough to win at least 10 games with this team and its favorable schedule. The Colts get four games against the Jaguars and Texans, and they should get back to beating the Titans. They also play arguably the weakest NFC conference (East).
Ryan is not going to Indy and instantly winning a Super Bowl like Tom Brady (Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (Rams) the last two years, but he is going to win the division and hit the over.
Seattle Seahawks: Under 5.5 wins (+115 at FanDuel)
I had to check these NFL win total odds twice, because it seemed too good to be true. While head coach Pete Carroll has had a good run, it is hard to imagine this rebuild year won’t be the worst of his coaching career.
The only time Carroll won fewer than seven games was his 6-10 season as a rookie head coach with the Jets way back in 1994. But after the Seahawks finished 7-10 last year with Russell Wilson starting 14 games, how do they expect to only decline one game with a quarterback room of Geno Smith and Drew Lock?
Smith won the competition in the preseason, but nothing about his career inspires that he’ll be good this season even if he gets to play with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf was a big disappointment last season, failing to break 1,000 yards. Lockett will miss the precision of Wilson’s passes, especially deep. The defense is also without linebacker Bobby Wagner (Rams) and basically everyone that made it a good unit years ago.
But the big reason to fade Seattle is the 2022 schedule. The Seahawks have to play 10 games against the loaded NFC West and AFC West. While they probably won’t go 0-10 in those games, it should surprise no one if they did. Road trips to New Orleans and Tampa Bay won’t be kind either.
That means the Seahawks would have to clean house in the most winnable games: Falcons, Lions, Giants, Panthers, and Jets. That gets you to five wins, but you know this team will slip up somewhere there.
It was a good run while it lasted, but this should be the year where Seattle finishes no better than 5-12, and the team can do something about the quarterback in April’s draft.
Miami Dolphins: Over 8.5 wins (-135 at FanDuel)
The Dolphins have had a winning record the last two seasons and still missed the playoffs both times. That hasn’t happened in the NFL since the Dolphins did it in 2002-03. It is time for that to change as Mike McDaniel takes over as the new head coach from San Francisco. He has followed Kyle Shanahan around since 2006 and should be able to implement a YAC-based passing game and zone run system that will help this team take off on offense even if Tua Tagovailoa is not a superstar quarterback in his third season.
This system has a long history of inflating quarterback stats for passers not deemed to be uniquely talented, including Matt Schaub, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo. In San Francisco, Garoppolo had the highest yards per pass attempt (8.4) of any quarterback born after WWII. Yet, no one traded for him this offseason.
Not only can McDaniel bring this system to Miami, but he is bringing serious speed and talent with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson Jr. joining Jaylen Waddle in the receiving corps. This passing game is going to open up after two years of Tua forcing throws into tightly covered receivers who couldn’t separate.
If Miami could win nine games the last two years, it can do it again (and more) with these improvements in place. McDaniel is a good pick for Coach of the Year too as he is going to earn much of the credit if this team makes the playoffs.
Always check back for more daily NFL predictions before making your bets.